Tropical Storm Gaston
• Currently located 644nm to the ESE of Bermuda and moving NNW at 15kt
• Tropical Storm strength of 60kt, expected to intensify into a hurricane this evening as it enters more favourable conditions
• Still forecast to recurve NE late Sunday into early Monday to the East of Bermuda, see excerpt direct from NHC discussion:
‘Gaston to make a sharp turn toward the north and northeast when the cyclone is located several hundred miles east of Bermuda.’
• Closest point of approach (CPA) is now 437nm to our East at 9am Monday morning
• Still some uncertainty in the forecast, so expect further slight changes in forthcoming advisories. However, all the main model guidance now holds Gaston to our East
• Main impacts at this stage continue to fall into ‘Blue Category’ due to building Easterly swells, which will potentially bring hazardous surf/rip currents especially to the South Shore – BWS has now issued a Small Craft Warning for this as swells are likely to build towards 9ft by late Sunday
Click this link for the latest graphic:
http://www.weather.bm/maps/TropicalStormInfo.asp?WTNTnum=WTNT22
Low to the southwest of Bermuda
• An area of low pressure has developed around 115nm to the SW of Bermuda
• This has been steering some showers in our direction on moderate to strong SE winds and will continue to do so today (Small Craft Warning issued for occasionally strong winds and also a Thunderstorm Advisory in concert with shower activity – both valid for this afternoon)
• However, the low is forecast to move West away from the Bermuda area with steadily improving weather conditions, and any significant development is expected to be slow to occur
• As of 9am Saturday 27 August, the NHC have a 30% chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48hrs