The Deputy Premier and Minister of Finance the Hon. E.T. Richards JP MP today advised that Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded Bermuda’s rating to A2 from A1 with a stable outlook.
”Given the momentum we continue to gain in reducing the deficit, as outlined in the government medium-term expenditure framework, it is disappointing that Moody’s has chosen to downgrade Bermuda,” the Minister said.
The ratings agency stated that the “key drivers” of the downgrade were the following:
- Despite improved economic prospects, Bermuda’s economic strength continues to lag that of A1-rated sovereigns.
- Bermuda’s fiscal strength continues to trail many A1-rated peers due to its high interest burden, even as its debt metrics have stabilized at a moderate level.
The stable outlook was attributed to the fact that economic prospects are beginning to improve and also due to expectations that the government’s consolidation program will support a gradual improvement in the fiscal position as well as debt metrics remaining “stable over the rating horizon.”
Moody’s further stated that, “Upward ratings pressure would emerge if the economy accelerated significantly beyond Moody’s current expectations of growth of about 2.0% and this led to a rapid reduction of the debt burden.” However, the ratings agency said what could change the rating down would be a situation in which, “the economic recovery fails to take hold, complicating the government’s efforts to reduce fiscal imbalances. Additionally, an upward debt trajectory due to fiscal slippage that jeopardizes public finance sustainability would be credit negative.”
In closing, the Minister of Finance said the report will not change his plans to balance the budget by fiscal year 2018/19.
He stated, “Keys to getting Bermuda back on a balanced footing include avoiding becoming too aggressive in cutting expenditure, because that would mean huge lay-offs and/or cuts to government programs such as Financial Assistance, Health and Education.
“Also we must not excessively increase taxes, because that would only put a burden on our people and discourage foreign direct investment.”
The Minister further added, “Standard & Poor’s affirmed our rating at A+ and furthermore, in February of this year, Moody’s published a glowing report on Bermuda titled, “Bermuda's Fiscal Consolidation Efforts Bear Fruit, a Credit Positive. It would therefore seem inconsistent that Bermuda should be downgraded by Moody’s now.”